The Grinch who Stole Equity

Not to be rude, but I'm really hoping carolers don't stop by my house this year. It's always so awkward; me standing on the porch humming along while strangers sing to me. During the coldest time of year at that. Maybe I'll just start checking through the blinds before I answer. I'm guaranteed to walk right back inside should this crew show up.

It's easy to go meal to meal never getting hungry this time of year, that's what I'm thankful for. Finding food in our real estate office is quite possibly easier than finding coffee in the pot, so this time of year it gets on the verge of poisonous. You could sift through all the gift baskets to find the exotic chocolates of your liking, or just grab the brittle from the basket closest to you. All on your way to the computer of course. If you know where to submit the record for the fastest a Honey Baked Ham was ever consumed, please inform me. I timed and witnessed it today.

As we aim to enjoy the holidays, it's hard for the position of the economy to be ignored. So let's take a look. When things such as prices go down, consumers are merry. Except when it's a product they're selling, right? For most of our country, that cheer is stemming from our super low gas prices and bargain interest rates. That pain, well it's generated from the not so appealing lower figures. Like the fact only 20 homes inside Chapel Hill city limits closed in November. Or maybe it's from the 500k in job losses our country faced in the month of November. The economy has to be The Grinch of Christmas '08.

So what is the fed doing to improve the housing market? It has been told we may see mortgage rates drop to as low as 4.5%. This comes as the Treasury continues to halt foreclosures and attempts to revitalize the countries housing market. Low rates and government bail out don't mean immediate changes to the market. The folks getting these low rates have excellent credit history and money to put down. Problem being this is not most people, and certainly not the same people banks were loaning to during the boom. Let's take a look at what goes into a credit score.

As you can see, many first time home buyers and those with poor credit have no avenue left for purchasing property. With all the foreclosures recently, maybe that is the way the system should be designed. I personally hope that alternate but responsible avenues of credit are created, as that gives more opportunity to the lower income home buyer and average American.

With some brief news on my Alma mater, ECU won the Conference USA Championship and is off to play Kentucky for the Liberty Bowl in Memphis on January 2. I don't think I'll be making the trip, but I still don't have plans for new years. I've seen Widespread Panic play in Atlanta for every new years as far as I can remember, which I'll miss as they are out in Denver this year. I'm envisioning something low key though, as a crowded bar or party is not where I'm looking to be when the ball drops.

Tomorrow night I'll be watching the finale of The Biggest Loser. Please cheer on as friends Heba & Ed complete their journey and vie for the $250,000 first prize. I hope everyone enjoys their holidays. I myself am looking for a little snow to fall this year, as sledding never gets old. Catch back up in 2009 and we'll take a look at the year ahead. Happy Holidays!

All Aboard the Gravy Boat

I'm down at Emerald Isle now having gotten a jump on my Thanksgiving break. We have a whole lot of family down for the week and a house that accommodates. We've been doing some boating & fishing so far but I can't seem to get a fish on the end of my line. It's kind of nice that things are slow with work right now. Every family beach trip I can remember has involved me scrambling to find a fax machine and impromptu trips back home to get a contract signed.

Since I'm on vacation, my blog will take a little vacation from the normal real estate scoop as well. The current market combine with this time of year doesn't leave much to be discussed. For those waiting on the market to hit bottom, well your time may be up around here. The rates today hit an incredibly low 5.25%. I for one am looking forward to a promising 2009 market. It should be interesting competing with my Dad this coming year too, who's now licenced and ready to sell.

The house we are staying in is called "One in a Million", which it really feels like. It's on the channel right next to the inlet, making for some good boating and hopefully more successful fishing. I'm pretty bummed about the heated pool out back, it's not working and Mr. Fix It from the rental office can't seem to get it going. I've been planning on spending half my week in that thing. There is a hot tub that will have to make due, although my sisters were laughing so hard in there earlier I'm not so sure it's safe to get in anymore.

It's been a blast having my nieces & nephews around here to entertain. During low tide we have all this beach to go play on right next to the house. My sister took this picture while we were out there yesterday.

Back in Chapel Hill last week, there wasn't a moment when I didn't have a Turkey lunch or dinner to attend. Whoever said there is no such thing as a free lunch obviously never sold real estate. I did find a break to volunteer with the Fix-A-Home project put on by the Chapel Hill Board of Realtors. The homeowner couldn't of been a sweeter old lady who showed her appreciation by the expression on her face every moment we were there. She did have a dog penned up in the smallest cage ever out back, I wish we could of spent half the day fencing in her back yard for it.

I hope you all have a great Thanksgiving. If your hitting the road, Travel safe. And if you get to choose pick fried turkey over baked. Mmmm I can taste it now.

Campaign '08

If your looking for my opinion in the race for the White House, you won't find it here. Staying neutral on issues like politics have been a very important aspect of running my business. A party sticker on my car is going to alienate one client of mine or another, it's just not worth it. Voting is tomorrow however, and I encourage everyone to get out and cast theirs.

A recent survey taken by Zillow.com shows that one candidates supporters have more confidence in their home values than the others. Their survey also concludes 74% of homes have lost value across the nation in the past 12 months. 49% surveyed think their home has increased in value, so like Mark Twain said, "Denial ain't just a river in Egypt". Triangle agents are seeing their listing agreements expire day after day, with many not selling simply because of unreasonable expectations.

This is why I am campaigning for these expired and withdrawn listings. Many agents compete for a listing by trying to put the biggest price tag on it, an unethical and narrow-minded way to approach selling a home. I am working to get these sellers down to earth, put a reasonable price tag on the home and adjusting their inflated expectations. This is just one reason I consider myself a "consultant" rather that a "salesman". I want to give these sellers a realistic education on our market and let them make educated decisions. If they prefer to list with another agent who will price the home beyond the value I see, so be it. I prefer not to have my sign sit in a yard for 180 days anyways.

Because of the Triangle's strong Economic foundation, I don't think a lot of the disillusion is coming from here. Although for the first time in decades we are a "buyers market" with 15% more inventory than last years, that is gradually changing. Our market is not full of over-priced homes, but the ones expiring are good evidence of some that are. Over the next several months I am hoping my campaign will capture some of this business from sellers who are now deciding to take a more realistic approach.

Hi dee ho Neighbor! I hope everyone had a great Halloween. Chapel Hill scaled back it's festivities this year, but it sure felt the same. I was dressed as Wilson, the friendly neighbor from Home Improvement. I received some recognition, however I heard guesses ranging from "defense" to "Are you on the fence about voting?"

I hope lines at your polls are short, and that your candidate wins. Until next time...

Carolina On My Mind

I took a trip to the State Fair yesterday. The weather could not have been better and the crowds weren't as bad as expected. I won this big ol' moose by throwing a ring around the neck of a bottle, piece of cake. We went on plenty of rides and saw sights like the eight-legged spider woman, who weren't all that weird in comparison to some of the folks you'll see at the fair. The food was good as always, I even went as far as trying the fried Snickers which was a delectable treat.

The rest of the weekend seemed to fly by. Saturday I spent watching some ECU football and it's good to see they are back to their winning ways. That evening we went to a haunted house put on by the Raleigh Jaycees. It had it's moments and was worth the admission, even someone as big & tough as me flinched a few times. After that it was off to a surprise party for my friend Chris Raynor. We had a swell time and even ended the night with a limo ride thanks to Chris' girlfriend.

So one question a lot of agents have been getting asked recently is "what are you doing to keep yourself busy?" It's a valid question, as the number of buyers and sellers is down significantly. Other than keeping my current clients as happy as can be, I've been working a million different ways to improve my business. I'll give you a look into just a few of the things I've been working on.

New Look for my Business

So I'm finally making my way out of the standard issue products everyone uses here at my office. That ranges from our company issued business cards to photography I use for marketing. I'm working on branding myself a little more, taking the focus off "Fonville Morisey" and putting it on myself. I've recruited the help of John Paredes, a graphic designer and photographer in Chapel Hill. He has created a design that looks great and I'm really excited about. With that & my new photographs he took I'm looking forward to having a new image for my business.

Building Relationships

Knowing people in the community has to be the most important part of building a referral business. Lately I have been trying to get my tail to every networking event I can. I have been building my BNI group, which has grown beyond everyone's expectations so far. You'll find me at the local Chamber leads group and every Business After Hours event they host. I am attending all the Realtor workshops, serving on our boards' membership committee and planning young Realtor events. If there is someone out there I don't know, it will only be a matter of time.

Discovering New Products

New real estate products are coming in everyday, most of them web-related. Our IT department has been great in helping me target these new sites. I have been looking into all the sites that get the most consumer traffic, creating profiles and posting my listings there. This gives me and my homes the extra exposure I can use. For example I recently joined Zillow.com, which has some great tools for me as an agent. Millions of consumers are using this site to search for real estate, and even though I find their "zestimates" to be very flawed information, it helps to put these consumers and agents like me together. Now when I sit in for a listing appointment, are you going to list with Billy Bob who advertises in the paper or an agent that will spread your listing across all the major real estate sites?

So that's just a glance at some of the things I'm doing to improve business, I can't have you knowing everything I do. Plus I need to pack my things and head up to the UNC campus soon. James Taylor is playing a free concert this evening I'm pretty excited about. Live music has to be one of my favorite things, I can't imagine life without it. It surely wouldn't be as sweet.

Economy Woes & TV Shoes

Howdy everyone. I hope your having a great day. I have been so far, just got done playing a round of golf at The Governors Club with my boss and some other agents. It has to be one of the nicest courses I've ever played. I am pretty darn bad at golf but I enjoy playing. I trumped my normal goal of getting one par on the day, with a whole two pars. That called for some celebrating at the clubhouse after the round.

Speaking of achieving goals, many of you know my friends Heba & Ed are on The Biggest Loser this season. I went to the viewing party they hosted Tuesday and got to see them win an RV! I think everyone see's them as a big threat for how many challenges they have been winning, let's just hope they can keep it up. Tuesday nights at 8:00, make sure you are cheering on the orange team.

So last time I wrote I was going on about ECU football. Well that has taken a turn for the worst if you hadn't noticed. I really hope we can get it together and win the rest of our schedule, I'd hate for us to be some early season flash in the pan. I had to skip the game in Greenville this past weekend. Between showing houses and dog sitting for my old pal Delilah I couldn't make the trip. I was living with my friend Matt at the time he got her and for 2 years after, so it was fun getting to spend a weekend with her.

Right now my business is still moving, but the market is not making it an easy job. I am working with one buyer at the moment looking at foreclosures. There are plenty of these on the market right now, with a handful of them being good opportunities. The home we ended up pursuing is a short sale. The way a short sale works is a bank owes more than they are selling it for, they simply want to cut their losses. These tend to be better investments than other foreclosures. There are lots of situations where banks have given 1st & 2nd mortgages for close to the value of the home. When prices were increasing, this made sense. Now with prices stalling or falling, there is no way for the banks to recoup all their money; with no real investment opportunities in these homes they will sit on the market with the rest.

With all the money banks now have tied up in these homes, there is a limited amount of funds to lend. With the economic bailout plan set to be voted on today, the goal will be to put these funds back in place for the American consumer to borrow. It is a harsh reality to see now what has occurred, and the economy has learned a tough lesson. I suggest reading this article from 1999, which shows some seeds being planted that spurned this mortgage crisis.

I have seen some pretty creative ways to sell a property in recent months. Real Estate raffles seem to becoming quite popular with homeowners. I may buy a ticket for this house, $50 seems like a good price for a waterfront home. Other homeowners who can't sell will have to face the reality of foreclosure. I've sat with many of these homeowners where there is no solution in site. I find most people are more concerned with what their neighbors think thank their own financial future. In other news of note, I've recently put in my application to do some substitute teaching. I have a pretty flexible schedule so I look forward to being able to do this once or twice a week. I went by my old elementary the other day and let all my past teachers know, I'm pretty excited to be going to back to Ephesus Elementary now and then. Have a great weekend.

Purple Haze

Well I couldn't of predicted this a couple weeks ago. Two of the best football games I've ever attended were back to back, and the Pirates came out on top of both. Holding the #8 team in the country WVU to 3 points was something special, but the excitement of the last minute win against Virginia Tech was exciting as it gets. The Pirates now hold a #14 ranking in the AP Poll and Coach Skip Holtz has just signed on to another six years at East Carolina!I have to admit, it sure was fun to be back in Greenville. I've got some friends that still live there that are nice enough to put us up for the weekend. With the success of the football team this year, the hotels are getting booked faster than the ECU students who rushed the field.

So when I haven't been engulfed in football this past couple weeks I've been working. My BNI group I wrote about last week is taking off, we had 7 new visitors this week that are all interested in joining. One moving to the area so hopefully we'll be out looking at some homes soon. It really is a great time for people to be home shopping, the interest rates just made another drop as well.

But what do you do if you are stuck in a home that just won't sell? There is something you'll see more of in the future, but it's been around for ages, Auctions. I don't want to call it a trend or say this form of selling real estate will take over, but I do feel there are properties out there that will benefit more from this type of sale. In some countries this is the primary means of selling real estate. I've seen some around Chapel Hill recently, so I signed up and took a course offered by Auction First North Carolina, Inc. It was a 4 hour course on just the fundamentals but what I learned was really eye opening.

First of all, it is amazing the response a AUCTION sign gets over the regular listing sign. As well as the online response from all over the world, auctions seem to attract a whole different breed of buyer. A home on Franklin Street here in Chapel Hill was listed with 3 agents over two years and no sale. They hired an auction company and were offered over their last listing price, and the buyer was from China! I really feel that real estate auctions will only find success in hard to sell and unique homes, but it is a great option to have for my buyers and sellers. Regular real estate licencees such as myself are working with buyers and sellers in these auctions, now I too am armed with all this information. I'll be interested to see where auctions go in the future, but with homes sitting on the market so long here in 2008 don't be surprised to see a sign near you.

I'm currently serving on the membership committee for the Chapel Hill Board of Realtors. My responsibilities are to head up a social function or two through out the year. I'm in the process of planning the 2nd Annual Young Realtor event to be hosted by The Franklin Hotel in downtown Chapel Hill. Last year the 35+ crowd felt a bit left out, so this year the theme will be more based on if you "feel young". I do, so I'll be there. I also have my friends Whitney Long & Rob Hale sponsoring the event, it's easier to attract a crowd when you're giving out a few free drinks.

Kicking Up Business

Almost a month since my last update on here, there's no excuse. Maybe I've been watching just too much of the Olympics which is finally over. August has moved pretty fast for me, I kicked off the month with a birthday. I'm 27 now, I can already tell I'm looking much older than when I was 26. I've started playing in a kickball league this month. That's right, kickball. Raleigh has an organization for adults that runs co-ed sports from flag football to dodgeball. I would rate it better than finding a slinky on top of a tall staircase.

I've spent this past weekend working with some old friends from high school. They are living up north but see the opportunity for investments here in the Triangle. They are Chapel Hill guys, so trying to show the places I liked in Durham was a hard sell. I think they agreed after seeing downtown that there is too much revitalization going on to be ignored. The growth in Durham and it's support from it's neighbors will only help our area as a whole. Durham has a stigma that for some people is hard to shake, but I feel I'm doing a good job of disproving it with every client I get out.

As a self employed professional you have to always be looking at ways to improve and grow your business. Networking is a key to being successful in real estate, if no one knows you then good luck drumming up a sale. I've been attending the local Chamber events and visited their leads group on occasion, but never got the feel it was greatly improving my business. Two minutes with someone drinking a glass of wine at a 6:30pm Chamber event is not catapulting my career. The odds are they will talk to 8 other Realtors before they leave too, we seem to be everywhere.

I was recently invited to a Durham BNI leads group as a guest of another Realtor. She was the only Realtor there, in fact there was a rule that limited it to one person from each field. This was a leads group that met for an hour once a week. They passed referrals back and forth, one after the other. They had gotten to know each other well and were comfortable with who they were giving leads to. The agent I attended with does several transactions a month from her group alone. That's all I needed to hear and see, I along with a friend have the ball rolling on our own, and the first, BNI group in Chapel Hill. We have about 10 members and they are a really good group of folks. I was somehow appointed President so I'll be busy increasing the size of our group and my business over the next few months.

I'm very much looking forward to this Labor Day weekend. As many of you know I'm an ECU grad and they will be playing football in Charlotte this weekend against Virginia Tech. I'll be staying with a friend there who just got a new boat, which means Sunday will be spent on Lake Norman. Hopefully the weather will hold out for us as I'll be outside 90% of the weekend. I got season tickets this year, which translates into several trips back to Greenville. It's nice to have gone to school so close, I always look for excuses to get back for a weekend and now I've got 3 or 4 of them. Go Pirates!